The Top 5 Teams That 'Could Have' Won March Madness, and why Duke Is Not On That List.
- bantoch99
- May 7, 2019
- 13 min read
March Madness is about adapting to a new opponent, and surviving to fight another day. It doesn't have to look pretty all the time, but a win is a win in order to get to the big dance. This year’s champions, the Virginia Cavaliers, embodied that by winning incredibly clutch and heart-wrenching games. It is an incredible story -from being the first ever one-seed, to losing to a sixteen seed, then coming back as March Madness Champions one year later.
Their run consisted of heart-pounding buzzer beaters, clutch free throws and three pointers, along with incredible individual performances. Everything went their way this year, and it seemed they were truly destined to win it all. But... what if one of those free throws missed against Auburn? What if Mamadi Diakite missed that buzzer-beater against Purdue? Who would have won those games, and would we still be talking about Virginia as the champions of March Madness?
Here are the top five teams that could have won March Madness... but didn't.
1. Texas Tech
This talented team reached the Elite Eight last year, and saw the stars as their limit this year. With the Coach of the year in the Big 12, Chris Beard, their excellence began before the tournament even started.
They were the first team to win at least a share of the Big 12 Title not named Kansas in fourteen years. Led by Big 12 Player of the Year, Jarrett Culver, this team was not only able to score at a high pace, (72.8 points per game), but defended at an exceptional level. They averaged 4.9 blocks, and 7.4 steals per game holding their opponents to under 60 points per game all season.
They were this seasons runner-up to Virginia in an 85-77 defeat in the National Championship. Not only could one shot have been the difference in this game, but they defeated other very talented teams on the way.
In their second round matchup, they faced 6-seed Buffalo. Something people don't realize is that Buffalo was a team in the top 25 the whole season, and was a Cinderella in last year's March Madness after they defeated 4th-seed Arizona who was led by NBA lottery pick Deandre Ayton.
In this matchup, Jarrett Culver had 16 points in the game and led them to a 78-58 victory. He also led Texas Tech in points per game (18.5), rebounds per game (6.4), and assists per game (3.7) all season. Their games only got more difficult as they looked on to last years runner up, 2 Michigan, who was their Sweet 16 date now.
This was a very convincing win that turned a lot of heads. 63-44 was the final score, with another dominant performance by Culver, and his 22 point effort. In these two games, Tariq Owens finally found himself getting hot with 15 rebounds vs Buffalo, and 10 rpg adding 7 ppg against Michigan. He only averaged just over four points coming into the tournament. David Moretti's 15 points, and Matt Mooney's 10 points complement Jarrett Culver throughout the tournament and helped them become a much more diverse team.
Another challenge awaited Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. 1-seed Gonzaga. The 33-4 Bulldogs came to the game looking for their second final four appearance in three years. Once again, the trio for Tech in Culver, Mooney, and Dave Moretti combined for 48 of their 75 in a 75 - 69 win.
As we know in March Madness, the competition gets tougher and tougher the further you make it in the tounament. The final four appearance landed Texas Tech an opportunity to challenge 2-seed Michigan State for the right to play in the National Championship game.
One thing that makes Texas Tech so difficult to beat is the fact that they can shoot so poorly in a half, 8-26 to be exact, and still hold a 23-21 lead. All of a sudden, their offense flips a switch. Suddenly, they score 38 points in the second half in an offensive explosion to earn a ten point 61-51 victory and advance to the National Championship against Virginia.
A close contest put the game into overtime against Virginia, but the downfall began for Texas Tech in regulation. Poor shot selections on three pointers with a lot of time left in the shot clock gave Virginia some breathing room to take their backs off the wall. Texas Tech couldn't find themselves in the OT period, and looked a little bit sluggish knowing their best opportunity was in regulation.
On their way to the National Championship game, Texas Tech defeated teams with combined records of 153 - 31. All those teams collectively had an average of an 83% winning percentage. It's no reason Texas Tech finds themselves number one on my list, but is there anyone else who could have won the National Championship?
2. Auburn Tigers
An incredible run by Auburn had me thinking they were going to be the first ever five-seed to win the National Championship.
They were arguably the hottest team entering the tournament after winning the SEC championship. They were hot off a winning streak before Virginia defeated them by one point on what could have easily been their 13th straight victory looking on to the National Championship.
Auburn defeated Kansas, UNC, and Kentucky in three straight games to advance to the Final Four. Kansas and UNC rank 2nd and 3rd in all time victories in college basketball.
People can look at Auburn and say that thread-bare escaped in their first round matchup against New Mexico State was a negative thing. However, every single other 5 seed lost in the first round. Auburn was the only 5 seed to make it to the second round.
In the second round, they completely dominated Kansas. The 89-75 final score looks way prettier than the game actually was. Put this into perspective, AU was WINNING BY 26 at the half - that's more points than Kansas scored in the ENTIRE first half.
The Sweet 16 game with UNC was no different. The 97-80 victory gave the Tigers a lot of confidence moving into the Elite Eight. They only had one problem before their game against Kentucky: their big man Chuma Okeke, who averaged 12 points and 6.8 boards per game, tore his ACL against UNC in the second half, but at that point the game was out of hand.
He was one of three players with double digit points on the season for Auburn. Before he went down against UNC, he had 13 points and 5 rebounds against New Mexico State 12-5 vs Kansas, and 20-11 and counting before getting injured against UNC.
A lot of people counted Auburn out at this point, a very hot Kentucky team was now the difference between them and their chances at the Final Four. In a thriller, they defeated Kentucky in OT 77-71 without Okeke at this point. The team totally rallied around their absence teammate. Watching the game, I admit I had goosebumps seeing the complete team effort, determination, and trust in one another.
Being down five at the half, Chuma Okeke rolled out in a wheelchair in the second half, and began the surge for Auburn's comeback to force overtime. Guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper combined for 50 in the game and carried the load for Auburn as they out-dueled John Calipari and the Wildcats.
What seemed like two destined teams to win the National Championship met in the Final Four. The extremely contested game had Auburn looking to move one, but a controversial foul on a three pointer for Virginia's Kyle Guy with 0.6 seconds left from an inbound pass by another Cavalier, Ty Jerome, said otherwise. Minutes earlier, the referee missed a double-dribble on Ty Jerome, which ultimately factored into Virginia's narrow escape.
Kyle Guy hit all three free throws from the foul and ended Auburn's March Madness with a 63-62 final score. If any one thing is different in that game, we might be talking about Auburn being the National Champions of 2019.
3. Michigan State
We'll start off with the fact they were regular season and postseason Big 10 champions. They were an aggressive, passionate team that averaged 77.9 points per game shooting just over 48% on the season, and grabbing 40 rebounds per game, as well.
Their March Madness run of dominance was led by All-American Cassius Winston. He began their first game with 26 points on a Bradley team that actually led at the half in the first round. After Winston took over, he carried the Spartans through multiple dominant performances.
A 20 point second round victory over another Big 10 team, Minnesota, showed just how versatile Michigan State is on offense considering six of their players scored nine or more points. They defensively held the Gophers to an abysmal 9.1% from three the entire game on twenty-two attempts.
The scoring spree continued for Michigan State as they raced past the LSU Tigers in a completely one sided affair. The 80-63 final score was capped off by shooting 40.6% from three while holding LSU under forty percent on from the entire field. Four players had twelve or more points on the offensive side for the Spartans too.
This win had them looking at an Elite Eight matchup with The Duke Blue Devils. Duke coming in to the tournament was the heavy favorite and was picked in nearly fifty percent of the brackets on ESPN.
An incredibly close one point 68-67 game was the difference between the two heavyweights to go to the Final Four. Once again, Cassius Winston led the Spartans by playing all forty minutes with a 20 point, 10 assist double-double. He was backed up by Xavier Tillman who added 19 points and 9 rebounds.
Defensively, they held two of Duke's stars, Tre Jones and Cam Reddish, to a combined twelve points despite the fact they played seventy-seven out of the total eighty minutes possible. They were practically invisible in their largest game of the year.
Duke shot better from the field than Michigan State did. However, the difference was the quick hands for Michigan State getting eleven steals on the game and forcing seventeen Duke turnovers.
In March Madness, you have to be able to win in various ways, and Michigan State did that all the way up to the Final Four, where they met Texas Tech.
The two defensive teams combined for only 112 points. Michigan State suffered the loss 61-51 to the Big 12 champions.
In the game, Cassius Winston was held 4-16 from the field, and did not get a lot of help in the game considering he was still the highest scorer with 16 points. The difference for Michigan State was the wear and tear on their starters being relied on to play almost the full games throughout the whole tournament.
Texas Tech on the other hand was able to use their bench more. Two bench players for Tech had more minutes between them than Michigan State's entire bench did the whole game. Forty-five minutes to the Spartan's twenty-seven.
The Big 10 was an incredibly talent-deep conference this season, and they had other teams that definitely could have won this tournament.
4. Purdue Boilermakers
This is a team a lot of people, including myself, slept on. In the past we've seen them reach the Sweet Sixteen, and then get eliminated without making too much noise. A lot of people did not take them seriously enough.
Scoring 76.7 points per game, this team was able to explode offensively. That was all thanks to their hero Carsen Edwards. Averaging 24.3 points per game on over 42.3% from the field and almost 42% from three, he was a scoring machine.
He now owns a couple of records in the all-time March Madness books. He made twenty-eight threes-a tournament record- and scored an incredible 139 points in four games. Steph Curry previously owned the record for most points in a four game span with 128 during his 2008 run with Davidson.
Let's get to it; the first round brought no surprise to see Carsen Edwards score 26 points in their 13 point victory to give them a chance to knock off the defending champions in the second round.
This game was over before halftime. Another heard turner from this tournament favored the Boilermakers when they found themselves up 43-24 at halftime, and finished the game with an 87-61 victory.
Obviously Edwards did his thing, scoring an absolutely absurd 42 points, but their defense deserves a lot of credit. Holding Villanova to 34.5 % from the field, and forcing Villanova to take difficult shots trying to keep up with their own offensive firepower was too overwhelming for the Wildcats.
This is where things went crazy for Purdue, and they looked to be almost unstoppable.
The Sweet Sixteen, The insane overtime game against Tennessee that ended 99-94 in favor of the Boilermakers boasted another incredible finish. Carsen Edwards played all forty-five minutes in the game, and put 29 on the scoreboard followed by the 27 for Ryan Cline.
Purdue was able to withstand the five players from Tennessee who scored double digits in the game. Each team had an almost identical stat line. Purdue shot 54% from the field and 48.4% from three with an awful free-throw percentage of 48.5. While the free throws usually kill a team if you miss 17 the way they did, the Volunteers shot 50% from everywhere. Yes, everywhere. Including at the free-throw line making and missing fourteen.
With the narrow escape, they were pushed on to face the Virginia Cavaliers. Here is why they were put at number four on my list. They were literally destined to win this game. A missed free-throw by Virginia that was tapped out behind half court was heaved to Mamadi Diakite who hit a clutch floater as the buzzer sounded to send the game to overtime, the second straight one for Purdue.
Carsen Edwards made himself a highlight tape of the century in that game, having another 42 point performance in their 80-75 OT defeat.
In a game where they led in field goal percentage and three point percentage, their free throws and foul trouble were their achilles heel. With seventeen personal fouls, Virginia took complete advantage of them at the charity stripe making seventeen free throws.
If Purdue had a little more luck go their way, or maybe even a call or two, it is no doubt this team could have competed in the Final Four (or maybe even won the entire thing the way Carsen Edwards was playing).
5. Kentucky
There is not much debate that Kentucky could have made it to the Final Four. Their run was led by another high-powered offense (75.8 ppg this season), but mainly ascended through their defensive successes.
Their first round matchup was over before they were halfway through the first half. Kentucky led Abilene Christian at half 39-13. One of the stats that is really surprising to see was that Kentucky only shot 28.6% on three pointers in the game, and they still defeated ACU 79-44.
A tougher second round matchup against the Wofford Terriers was much more difficult for the Wildcats. The 30-5 Terriers were led by Nathan Hoover's 19 points in the game. The sharpshooter made nearly 47% of his threes this season. Outside of him making four of five threes in the game, Kentucky held the rest of the team to 18% from three in another impressive defensive performance.
On the offensive side for Kentucky, they were led by senior forward Reid Travis' 14 points and 11 rebounds. In March Madness, teams have to be versatile, and Kentucky was able to show that even though their strength in the regular season was offense, they were able to change their identity and flip the switch on the defensive side of the ball.
In The Sweet 16, Kentucky found themselves looking at a date with the Houston Cougars. Houston came off last season's March Madness with a Sweet 16 buzzer beater loss to Michigan, also last years runner up.
For the third straight time this tournament, Kentucky held their opponent to under 60 points. It was another close contest that was highlighted by a clutch three from Tyler Herro with 25.8 seconds left to add to his 19 point total for the game accompanied by PJ Washington's 16 off the bench.
Kentucky held Houston to under 40% from the field and 35% from three. Their defense had carried them this far, and in order to reach the final four they were looking at another SEC standing in their way, Auburn.
Despite PJ Washington's 28 points off the bench, it was not enough for Kentucky to outlast Auburn in the Elite Eight. What was another impressive defensive performance for Kentucky held the Tigers to 60 points in regulation, but was burnt out by overtime and gave in to allow an additional 17 points.
Kentucky had no answer for Jared Harper in the OT period who scored 12 of his 26 in that period.
In regulation, Kentucky had two opportunities to score with under eleven seconds left in the game. A blocked shot on PJ Washington, and another miss by Keldon Johnson left Kentucky scratching their heads and wanting that opportunity back.
And now, onto the moment you've all been waiting for: Duke, and why they are not on my list.
First, I'll begin with the fact they are a team composed of all Freshman. I had very low expectations for Duke coming into this tournament and understood that four of their starting five players were experiencing this for the first time. For reference, look at the teams that won recently. Villanova twice, UNC, and Virginia. UNC and both Villanova teams’ best player or players all entered the draft as seniors. Including this year’s Virginia team that had no freshman starting for them in the tournament.
Freshman teams do not to well in this tournament. It is typically a veteran-led team that has a lot of experience and understands how to deal with the overwhelming pressure of this tournament that prevails. March Madness has that name for a reason. It is as much about control, confidence, and heart as it is about talent- sometimes more. It is the same reason the 38-0 Kentucky Wildcat team could not win the National Title back in 2014 when they had 4 players drafted in the top 15 of the NBA Draft.
Also, the 2014 Kentucky team dominated teams in that tournament, unlike Duke was capable of doing in this one. A 78-39 win over West Virginia was one of the highlights for Kentucky that season during their March Madness run.
Duke narrowly escaped their second, and third round matchup by the skin of their teeth, and even only had a four point advantage at halftime before turning the table on their first round game against North Dakota State.
Duke should have, but did not lose that game to UCF. That ball that rolled around the rim twice could have send Duke packing back to North Carolina just as easy as it sent them to the Sweet 16.
The game against Virginia Tech was just as close as their game against UCF. A missed three pointer and layup under the last five seconds for Virginia Tech on a wide-open opportunity cost them a chance to advance to the Elite Eight, but allowed Duke to narrowly slide by once again.
The problem with winning so many close games, is that you cannot win them all. Duke learned this once they went up against Michigan State. Two of Duke's best players, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones were missing throughout the game. You can rarely lose two of you best players for a full forty minutes and expect to win. They ended up losing to a very good Michigan State team 68-67, but had other flaws holding them back in the tournament, as well.
After their dominance over North Dakota State, Duke showed many signs that they were just too inexperienced.
First, even though they scored 73 points per game in that span, they allowed 72.3 points per game as well. They shot only 34.8% from three and a disappointing 62.8% from the free throw line.
Aside from their shooting struggles, they could have been able to defeat the teams in their path with much more ease, but they gave up 18 fouls to UCF and committed the 17 turnovers to Michigan State.
If this same team returned in the fall, I would say that through the experience they gained from this season, they would, in my opinion win, the National Championship. As freshman, however, with all the hype saying championship or bust, I believed the spotlight and pressure on these athletes would overwhelm them at some point, and it did.
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